The S&P 500's record highs have investors wondering: diamond or bust?

Strong jobs and resilient consumer spending paint a rosy picture, but Fed Chair Powell's hawkish stance and conflicting economic data raise concerns. Is this a "high-pressure economy" forging a robust market, or a bubble primed to burst?

After a rough first couple of weeks to open 2024, markets have been ripping the past week and a half. We’ve settled into an interesting environment where the talk has gone from a hard landing, recession and four rate hikes in 2023 to a soft landing and six possible rate cuts in 2024.

The consumer hasn’t gotten tired of spending — at least not yet. December retail sales, released last Wednesday, were strong and easily exceeded expectations. The latest consumer sentiment number also came out last week, jumping to its highest level in nearly three years.

Markets continued to climb back toward end-of-July highs last week. After the Federal Reserve’s last meeting and a softer jobs number indicated a slowing economy, markets began to look for additional confirmation of easing inflation. That arrived with a flourish last week (more in the next section) and all but sealed the end of additional interest rate hikes.

Markets continued to slump last week as bond rates hit levels we haven’t seen in 16 years. Suddenly, a five-year treasury yielding 4.7% isn’t so bad when compared to the volatility of the stock market.

The month of September is historically a rough month for markets — and this year was no exception. Rising gas prices and high mortgage rates weighed on markets throughout the month. Then the prospect of a potential government shutdown pulled stocks down even further last week.

The Federal Reserve didn’t raise rates last week but left the door open for one more rate hike in the final two meetings of 2023. This was widely expected, but markets still didn’t like Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments in his post-meeting press conference.

Stocks closed lower last week, even as the latest data shows the U.S. is still doing well from an economic standpoint. Not a lot of new numbers were released, but the ones that were generally surprised on the upside.

Markets didn’t know which direction to go last week as they tried to decide which had more weight: the good news or the not-so-good news.

Fitch Ratings downgraded the United States’ long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating from AAA to AA+ last Tuesday, removing the “negative” rating watch and assigning a “stable outlook” label instead. (It’s like saying we were a shaky No. 1 but now a solid No. 2.) The downgrade is most likely a result of the most recent debt ceiling standoff and stopped the markets dead in their tracks.

Data released late last week seemed to back up Powell’s statements. The first reading of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was released just after the Fed’s meeting. The U.S. economy grew by 2.4% in the second quarter, up from 2.0% in the first quarter and above expectations of 1.8%. Meanwhile, durable goods orders jumped 4.7% in June.

Last week was a strong one for the market, even though corporate earnings were mixed. (More on this in the next section.) Overall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at new yearly highs on Friday at 35,227.69. The S&P 500 followed suit most of the week, up 18% for the year before sliding off to end the week.

Markets have priced in two more hikes, a brief pause and then cuts. But what the markets have overlooked is the possibility of rates staying “higher for longer,” which is beginning to be a more likely possibility.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell doubled down on talk of additional, consecutive interest rate increases in the coming months — forecasting a potential half-percentage-point increase through the end of 2023 as the Fed had implied at its June meeting.

After reaching 4,400 points at breakneck speed, the S&P naturally took a few steps back last week.

What is needed to get back on track? I believe the Fed needs to stop raising rates. It’s not a magic solution; if the Fed stops raising rates, things won’t automatically revert back to all good or normal. We need to get government spending in line, and the consumer needs to get healthy again before that can happen.

Maybe Lionel Ritchie was on to something. It would seem this story shouldn’t be a story, but given today’s political climate, here we are.

Hiring has been strong this year, especially at restaurants and retailers. But is there a change coming?

Ever heard of a “ Jacob’s ladder” ”? It’s a notoriously difficult sailing ship apparatus that requires finesse to use effectively. One small shift in body weight, and you get all twisted around (if you don’t fall completely off). Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell seems to be grappling with his own Jacob’s ladder, balancing between raising rates to tame inflation and supporting banks under increasing pressure due to the Fed’s rate hikes.