Markets have priced in two more hikes, a brief pause and then cuts. But what the markets have overlooked is the possibility of rates staying “higher for longer,” which is beginning to be a more likely possibility.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling a pause in June. Markets reacted negatively, as the debt ceiling debate and bank struggles weighed on sentiment.

What is needed to get back on track? I believe the Fed needs to stop raising rates. It’s not a magic solution; if the Fed stops raising rates, things won’t automatically revert back to all good or normal. We need to get government spending in line, and the consumer needs to get healthy again before that can happen.

Maybe Lionel Ritchie was on to something. It would seem this story shouldn’t be a story, but given today’s political climate, here we are.

Hiring has been strong this year, especially at restaurants and retailers. But is there a change coming?

Ever heard of a “ Jacob’s ladder” ”? It’s a notoriously difficult sailing ship apparatus that requires finesse to use effectively. One small shift in body weight, and you get all twisted around (if you don’t fall completely off). Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell seems to be grappling with his own Jacob’s ladder, balancing between raising rates to tame inflation and supporting banks under increasing pressure due to the Fed’s rate hikes.

To say lots has been happening in the U.S. banking system over the past two weeks is quite the understatement. First Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were closed by regulators. Then fissures appeared over at Credit Suisse, which reported in February that clients pulled $119 billion out in the fourth quarter and that in 2022 the bank realized its biggest annual loss since 2009.