Stop, skip — or something else? As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates alone last week after raising rates at its prior 10 meetings.

In typical Dr. Jekyll-Mr. Hyde fashion, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell first gave markets hope that after the Fed raised rates at its final meeting of 2022, they might pause to watch what a 4.25% Fed Funds rate would do to inflation and the economy. Predictably, markets soared on the possibility of a pause on rate increases. Then — just as suddenly — he stepped up to the microphone following last week’s meeting and said the Fed still isn’t done.

Everyone seems to believe we are on the brink of a recession, and the debate is about when it will start, how long it will last, and how severe it will be. Anyone who works in any sort of forecasting knows these three pieces of information are vital to formulating a forecast, and right now, we don’t have answers to any of these questions.