Markets continued to climb back toward end-of-July highs last week. After the Federal Reserve’s last meeting and a softer jobs number indicated a slowing economy, markets began to look for additional confirmation of easing inflation. That arrived with a flourish last week (more in the next section) and all but sealed the end of additional interest rate hikes.

The month of September is historically a rough month for markets — and this year was no exception. Rising gas prices and high mortgage rates weighed on markets throughout the month. Then the prospect of a potential government shutdown pulled stocks down even further last week.

The Federal Reserve didn’t raise rates last week but left the door open for one more rate hike in the final two meetings of 2023. This was widely expected, but markets still didn’t like Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments in his post-meeting press conference.

Stocks closed lower last week, even as the latest data shows the U.S. is still doing well from an economic standpoint. Not a lot of new numbers were released, but the ones that were generally surprised on the upside.

Markets didn’t know which direction to go last week as they tried to decide which had more weight: the good news or the not-so-good news.

Fitch Ratings downgraded the United States’ long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating from AAA to AA+ last Tuesday, removing the “negative” rating watch and assigning a “stable outlook” label instead. (It’s like saying we were a shaky No. 1 but now a solid No. 2.) The downgrade is most likely a result of the most recent debt ceiling standoff and stopped the markets dead in their tracks.

Data released late last week seemed to back up Powell’s statements. The first reading of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was released just after the Fed’s meeting. The U.S. economy grew by 2.4% in the second quarter, up from 2.0% in the first quarter and above expectations of 1.8%. Meanwhile, durable goods orders jumped 4.7% in June.

Markets had their best January since 2019, and the upward momentum has spilled into a strong start to February thanks to the dovish Fed last week.

Overall, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.1% in 2022. It’s a pretty modest number, but if you consider that growth was negative in the first six months, the fact that we managed to get above 2% for the year is pretty remarkable.

Year-over-year producer prices also declined, dropping from 8.0% in October to 7.4% in November, then 6.8% in December. This is great news and clearly where we want to see inflation heading.

The sad truth remains that we’ve had nearly zero growth this year, coupled with extremely high inflation exacerbated by high energy costs. At the same time, interest rates are moving steadily upward and adding to the misery. It’s not exactly a recipe for a robust and healthy economy, and we don’t need to see two or three quarters of negative growth to confirm we are in a recession (or, at minimum, a stagflationary environment)