Nvidia's market cap reached new heights, surpassing Microsoft and Apple and driving the S&P 500 to new records. The author questions whether this rally can be sustained and compares it to the Bitcoin hype of 2021/2022.

Last week, the Federal Reserve hinted at just one rate cut by year-end, likely in November or December, as inflation slows but stays above 3%. Despite mixed economic data, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs, driven by optimism around AI and solid earnings.

Last week's focus was on economic weakness, evident in two key areas: the revised first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and several bond auctions. Additionally, elevated inflation has persisted for over three years, with the last reading below 3% occurring in April 2021 (2.6%). While 3% may not seem significant, we experienced an annual inflation rate between 7% and 9.1% from December 2021 through November 2022, peaking at 9.1% in June 2022.

Markets started the week quietly before turmoil hit midweek due to strong jobs and manufacturing data, coupled with Fed minutes hinting at prolonged high rates, causing the Dow's worst day this year. Despite a modest recovery on Friday, uncertainty looms with upcoming PCE data potentially adding volatility and the 10-year Treasury yield stuck at 4.5%.

This week's market commentary highlights the contrasting forces at play. While stock markets hit new highs on hopes of inflation subsiding and potential rate cuts, inflation data remains stubbornly high. The Federal Reserve's response to inflation will be key in determining the market's future trajectory.

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Strong jobs and resilient consumer spending paint a rosy picture, but Fed Chair Powell's hawkish stance and conflicting economic data raise concerns. Is this a "high-pressure economy" forging a robust market, or a bubble primed to burst?

Remember the “Soup Nazi” from Seinfeld? Well, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell channeled his inner “Soup Nazi” with an emphatic “No rate cuts for you” last Wednesday.

Markets continued to climb back toward end-of-July highs last week. After the Federal Reserve’s last meeting and a softer jobs number indicated a slowing economy, markets began to look for additional confirmation of easing inflation. That arrived with a flourish last week (more in the next section) and all but sealed the end of additional interest rate hikes.

Stocks opened the week strong, with the S&P 500 marking the 15th consecutive Monday of gains. But deepening tensions in the Middle East weighed on markets by mid-week, and shares fell sharply on Thursday following reports that a U.S. Navy destroyer had shot down cruise missiles reportedly headed toward Israel.

Despite the conflict in Israel, markets rallied early last week, and the potential for added turmoil in the Middle East had not had any measurable impact on the markets through the middle of the week.

Markets continued to slump last week as bond rates hit levels we haven’t seen in 16 years. Suddenly, a five-year treasury yielding 4.7% isn’t so bad when compared to the volatility of the stock market.

The month of September is historically a rough month for markets — and this year was no exception. Rising gas prices and high mortgage rates weighed on markets throughout the month. Then the prospect of a potential government shutdown pulled stocks down even further last week.

The Federal Reserve didn’t raise rates last week but left the door open for one more rate hike in the final two meetings of 2023. This was widely expected, but markets still didn’t like Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments in his post-meeting press conference.

Stocks closed lower last week, even as the latest data shows the U.S. is still doing well from an economic standpoint. Not a lot of new numbers were released, but the ones that were generally surprised on the upside.

Markets didn’t know which direction to go last week as they tried to decide which had more weight: the good news or the not-so-good news.

Now that summer is winding down and we’re beginning to look forward to the fall, the overall mood (and the weather) needs an adjustment. Markets are in a mood and have begun to traffic in rumor and innuendo with the combination of a dismal news cycle, scant data, higher gas prices and stubborn inflation.

Fitch Ratings downgraded the United States’ long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating from AAA to AA+ last Tuesday, removing the “negative” rating watch and assigning a “stable outlook” label instead. (It’s like saying we were a shaky No. 1 but now a solid No. 2.) The downgrade is most likely a result of the most recent debt ceiling standoff and stopped the markets dead in their tracks.

Data released late last week seemed to back up Powell’s statements. The first reading of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was released just after the Fed’s meeting. The U.S. economy grew by 2.4% in the second quarter, up from 2.0% in the first quarter and above expectations of 1.8%. Meanwhile, durable goods orders jumped 4.7% in June.