Nvidia's market cap reached new heights, surpassing Microsoft and Apple and driving the S&P 500 to new records. The author questions whether this rally can be sustained and compares it to the Bitcoin hype of 2021/2022.

Last week, the Federal Reserve hinted at just one rate cut by year-end, likely in November or December, as inflation slows but stays above 3%. Despite mixed economic data, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs, driven by optimism around AI and solid earnings.

The S&P 500's record highs have investors wondering: diamond or bust?

Strong jobs and resilient consumer spending paint a rosy picture, but Fed Chair Powell's hawkish stance and conflicting economic data raise concerns. Is this a "high-pressure economy" forging a robust market, or a bubble primed to burst?

The consumer hasn’t gotten tired of spending — at least not yet. December retail sales, released last Wednesday, were strong and easily exceeded expectations. The latest consumer sentiment number also came out last week, jumping to its highest level in nearly three years.

Last week was a short one for trading, bookended by the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. Markets closed up again last week, with the S&P 500 marking its ninth straight weekly gain — the longest stretch in 20 years.

Stocks opened the week strong, with the S&P 500 marking the 15th consecutive Monday of gains. But deepening tensions in the Middle East weighed on markets by mid-week, and shares fell sharply on Thursday following reports that a U.S. Navy destroyer had shot down cruise missiles reportedly headed toward Israel.

Despite the conflict in Israel, markets rallied early last week, and the potential for added turmoil in the Middle East had not had any measurable impact on the markets through the middle of the week.

Last week was a strong one for the market, even though corporate earnings were mixed. (More on this in the next section.) Overall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at new yearly highs on Friday at 35,227.69. The S&P 500 followed suit most of the week, up 18% for the year before sliding off to end the week.

After reaching 4,400 points at breakneck speed, the S&P naturally took a few steps back last week.

Stop, skip — or something else? As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates alone last week after raising rates at its prior 10 meetings.

Last week was a quiet one for trading, and markets seemed to be holding their breath in the days leading up to this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Although it wasn’t a stellar performance week

Remember the phrase, “March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb?” As we closed out a turbulent February, where we gave back almost half of our sparkling January returns, March started much like February ended.

Markets had their best January since 2019, and the upward momentum has spilled into a strong start to February thanks to the dovish Fed last week.Markets grappled with this information while also keeping a close eye on the release of the Fed minutes, which showed the Fed was nowhere close to considering a pause, let alone cuts.

Markets had their best January since 2019, and the upward momentum has spilled into a strong start to February thanks to the dovish Fed last week.

Overall, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.1% in 2022. It’s a pretty modest number, but if you consider that growth was negative in the first six months, the fact that we managed to get above 2% for the year is pretty remarkable.

In typical Dr. Jekyll-Mr. Hyde fashion, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell first gave markets hope that after the Fed raised rates at its final meeting of 2022, they might pause to watch what a 4.25% Fed Funds rate would do to inflation and the economy. Predictably, markets soared on the possibility of a pause on rate increases. Then — just as suddenly — he stepped up to the microphone following last week’s meeting and said the Fed still isn’t done.

Everyone seems to believe we are on the brink of a recession, and the debate is about when it will start, how long it will last, and how severe it will be. Anyone who works in any sort of forecasting knows these three pieces of information are vital to formulating a forecast, and right now, we don’t have answers to any of these questions.

Markets kept sliding downward last week, as Hurricane Ian battered Florida and the Nord Stream pipelines sprung leaks. The human and economic impact from the hurricane on Florida will be significant, but we don’t know the full effects. Suffice it to say that it will take a while for the state to recover.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW: Jan. 2 - 8, 2022
• New year, old problems — and same solutions
• Jobs, narrow markets and inflation
• 7 companies constitute 25% of the S&P 500