Stop, skip — or something else? As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates alone last week after raising rates at its prior 10 meetings.

Last week, the debt ceiling drama finally came to an end with a deal that appeared to satisfy no one.

We keep getting closer and closer to hitting the debt limit without a workable resolution. So, what can happen? There are several scenarios that could play out here…

The debt ceiling debate is a political brinkmanship that has the potential to cause significant economic damage if the government defaults on its debt. However, both parties have signaled that they are committed to reaching a deal, and markets have calmed somewhat as a result.

The consumer price index (CPI) came in at 4.9% year over year in April, just slightly under the 5.0% reading from March. While this is a positive sign, it is still more than double the Fed's target inflation rate of 2%. The Fed may need to see more evidence of inflation slowing before it pauses its rate hike cycle.

The market tanked on the CPI announcement at first, then rocketed back up. The Dow went on a wild swing over 1,400 points; when the smoke cleared, the Dow was up over 800 points and nearly 3% for the day. But by Friday, rising rate fears again gripped the markets and the 10-year Treasury rose above 4%. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ended down for the week, with the Dow squeaking out a gain.

Inflation isn’t going anywhere fast: CPI came in at 8.2% in September, down just barely from 8.3% last month. The market’s initial response was dismay, dropping significantly before allying at mid‐day.

Hurricane Ian barreled through Florida this week, leaving a wide swath of destruction in its wake. A natural disaster of this magnitude is a negative to markets, and it will still be several days before we see how extensive the fallout will be. It could also take some time to sort out the hurricane’s economic ramifications, including whether they will be short-term and specific to Florida or carry long-term effects for the entire country. Get our thoughts on what the data is saying.

The U.S. economy contracted by 0.9% in the second quarter – putting us into the traditional definition of a recession. How long will it last? Get our thoughts on what the data is saying.