Last week, the Federal Reserve hinted at just one rate cut by year-end, likely in November or December, as inflation slows but stays above 3%. Despite mixed economic data, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs, driven by optimism around AI and solid earnings.

We rounded the corner into a new year, and stocks ended the first full week of 2023 on a high note, with each of the three major markets up more than 2% on Friday.

Everyone seems to believe we are on the brink of a recession, and the debate is about when it will start, how long it will last, and how severe it will be. Anyone who works in any sort of forecasting knows these three pieces of information are vital to formulating a forecast, and right now, we don’t have answers to any of these questions.