Now that summer is winding down and we’re beginning to look forward to the fall, the overall mood (and the weather) needs an adjustment. Markets are in a mood and have begun to traffic in rumor and innuendo with the combination of a dismal news cycle, scant data, higher gas prices and stubborn inflation.

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Fitch Ratings downgraded the United States’ long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating from AAA to AA+ last Tuesday, removing the “negative” rating watch and assigning a “stable outlook” label instead. (It’s like saying we were a shaky No. 1 but now a solid No. 2.) The downgrade is most likely a result of the most recent debt ceiling standoff and stopped the markets dead in their tracks.

Data released late last week seemed to back up Powell’s statements. The first reading of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was released just after the Fed’s meeting. The U.S. economy grew by 2.4% in the second quarter, up from 2.0% in the first quarter and above expectations of 1.8%. Meanwhile, durable goods orders jumped 4.7% in June.

Last week was a strong one for the market, even though corporate earnings were mixed. (More on this in the next section.) Overall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at new yearly highs on Friday at 35,227.69. The S&P 500 followed suit most of the week, up 18% for the year before sliding off to end the week.

Markets have priced in two more hikes, a brief pause and then cuts. But what the markets have overlooked is the possibility of rates staying “higher for longer,” which is beginning to be a more likely possibility.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell doubled down on talk of additional, consecutive interest rate increases in the coming months — forecasting a potential half-percentage-point increase through the end of 2023 as the Fed had implied at its June meeting.

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After reaching 4,400 points at breakneck speed, the S&P naturally took a few steps back last week.

Stop, skip — or something else? As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates alone last week after raising rates at its prior 10 meetings.

Last week was a quiet one for trading, and markets seemed to be holding their breath in the days leading up to this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Although it wasn’t a stellar performance week

Last week, the debt ceiling drama finally came to an end with a deal that appeared to satisfy no one.

We keep getting closer and closer to hitting the debt limit without a workable resolution. So, what can happen? There are several scenarios that could play out here…

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The debt ceiling debate is a political brinkmanship that has the potential to cause significant economic damage if the government defaults on its debt. However, both parties have signaled that they are committed to reaching a deal, and markets have calmed somewhat as a result.

The consumer price index (CPI) came in at 4.9% year over year in April, just slightly under the 5.0% reading from March. While this is a positive sign, it is still more than double the Fed's target inflation rate of 2%. The Fed may need to see more evidence of inflation slowing before it pauses its rate hike cycle.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling a pause in June. Markets reacted negatively, as the debt ceiling debate and bank struggles weighed on sentiment.

What is needed to get back on track? I believe the Fed needs to stop raising rates. It’s not a magic solution; if the Fed stops raising rates, things won’t automatically revert back to all good or normal. We need to get government spending in line, and the consumer needs to get healthy again before that can happen.

Maybe Lionel Ritchie was on to something. It would seem this story shouldn’t be a story, but given today’s political climate, here we are.