Nvidia's market cap reached new heights, surpassing Microsoft and Apple and driving the S&P 500 to new records. The author questions whether this rally can be sustained and compares it to the Bitcoin hype of 2021/2022.

Last week, the Federal Reserve hinted at just one rate cut by year-end, likely in November or December, as inflation slows but stays above 3%. Despite mixed economic data, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs, driven by optimism around AI and solid earnings.

Last week's focus was on economic weakness, evident in two key areas: the revised first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and several bond auctions. Additionally, elevated inflation has persisted for over three years, with the last reading below 3% occurring in April 2021 (2.6%). While 3% may not seem significant, we experienced an annual inflation rate between 7% and 9.1% from December 2021 through November 2022, peaking at 9.1% in June 2022.

Markets started the week quietly before turmoil hit midweek due to strong jobs and manufacturing data, coupled with Fed minutes hinting at prolonged high rates, causing the Dow's worst day this year. Despite a modest recovery on Friday, uncertainty looms with upcoming PCE data potentially adding volatility and the 10-year Treasury yield stuck at 4.5%.

This week's market commentary highlights the contrasting forces at play. While stock markets hit new highs on hopes of inflation subsiding and potential rate cuts, inflation data remains stubbornly high. The Federal Reserve's response to inflation will be key in determining the market's future trajectory.

The first quarter of 2024 will go down as the best quarter for U.S. stocks since 2019.

Markets can bend and twist reality in very strange ways when they have decided on a direction. Spoiler alert: The direction right now is upward.

The labor market continues to rebalance, but it’s rebalancing too slowly for the Federal Reserve. Then we received fresh data on Tuesday showing inflation just isn’t coming down.

The S&P 500's record highs have investors wondering: diamond or bust?

Strong jobs and resilient consumer spending paint a rosy picture, but Fed Chair Powell's hawkish stance and conflicting economic data raise concerns. Is this a "high-pressure economy" forging a robust market, or a bubble primed to burst?

Markets continued to slump last week as bond rates hit levels we haven’t seen in 16 years. Suddenly, a five-year treasury yielding 4.7% isn’t so bad when compared to the volatility of the stock market.

Markets have priced in two more hikes, a brief pause and then cuts. But what the markets have overlooked is the possibility of rates staying “higher for longer,” which is beginning to be a more likely possibility.

Markets had their best January since 2019, and the upward momentum has spilled into a strong start to February thanks to the dovish Fed last week.Markets grappled with this information while also keeping a close eye on the release of the Fed minutes, which showed the Fed was nowhere close to considering a pause, let alone cuts.

Markets had their best January since 2019, and the upward momentum has spilled into a strong start to February thanks to the dovish Fed last week.

Overall, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.1% in 2022. It’s a pretty modest number, but if you consider that growth was negative in the first six months, the fact that we managed to get above 2% for the year is pretty remarkable.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW: Jan. 30 - Feb. 5, 2022
• Meta’s faceplant!
• The jobs conundrum and the Fed

THE WEEK IN REVIEW: Jan. 2 - 8, 2022
• New year, old problems — and same solutions
• Jobs, narrow markets and inflation
• 7 companies constitute 25% of the S&P 500

THE WEEK IN REVIEW: Dec. 12 - 18, 2021
• Fed finally makes a move. Is it enough?
• Omicron does its best Grinch impression

THE WEEK IN REVIEW: Dec. 5 - 11, 2021
• Markets shake off omicron and look to the Fed
• Inflation continues to rage

THE WEEK IN REVIEW: Nov. 7 - 13
• Consumers are priced out
• Well, that’s one way to make decisions